Jonathan Wilmot
Disinflation Set to Slow Down
After 2 very benign CPI reports for June and July the August report was slightly more concerning. The good news is that core inflation...
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Alex Haseldine
- Aug 10
- 1 min
US CPI: Core Services Running at 2%
The good news in the CPI report is that Core Services inflation (sticky inflation) is running at 2% over the last three months. Moreover,...
Alex Haseldine
- Jun 26
- 1 min
Dead Cat
The incipient recovery in global manufacturing that began in Q4:2022 has effectively rolled over and died over the past few months.
Jonathan Wilmot
- May 24
- 1 min
Manufacturing Dips, Services Power On
G4 flash PMI Data for May confirm that the incipient recovery in global production has dipped...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Apr 6
- 5 min
In a State of Limbo
Limbo: in a state of uncertainty, up in the air, in abeyance, betwixt and between. (Collins Dictionary). Stuck between heaven and hell...
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 10
- 2 min
Slowly, Slowly, Catchee Monkey
Competition for workers has been fierce but it now seems to be cooling down. Perhaps the Fed can afford to be more patient.
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 6
- 3 min
At Your Service
In February, the non-manufacturing sector accelerated and job creation stayed strong. However, data suggests labour supply has improved...
Alex Haseldine
- Feb 24
- 1 min
Back to Saving
Jobs and disposable income are up, but now consumers are looking for savings.
Jonathan Wilmot
- Feb 22
- 2 min
Turning UP
Near-term prospects for global growth continue to improve
Alex Haseldine
- Feb 15
- 2 min
Turning Slowly
Following yesterday’s US CPI release we update some of our favourite charts on inflations and inflation expectations
Jonathan Wilmot
- Feb 2
- 1 min
The PMIs Point Towards Spring
Recession deferred? Manufacturing PMIs are pointing towards a rebound in the Spring.
Federico Fontana
- Jan 19
- 3 min
Let's Chat About ChatGPT
ChatGPT is a great example of how man and machine can be even more powerful than either man or machine.
Jonathan Wilmot
- Jan 6
- 1 min
Fading Away
Inflation pressures are subsiding, especially in the goods sector..
Jonathan Wilmot
- Jan 4
- 3 min
War Like Wealth Destruction
2022 was a grim year for global peace and prosperity, and mostly a year of wealth destruction in financial markets….
Jonathan Wilmot
- Dec 19, 2022
- 2 min
China Gets Real
As China exits Covid-Zero, cases will soar but severe illness probably won't.
Alex Haseldine
- Dec 5, 2022
- 1 min
Not As Strong As It Seems
Following last week's robust employment report, the Fed Fund Futures curve barely budged Here are some reasons why
Alex Haseldine
- Dec 1, 2022
- 1 min
November PMI Note
In November, manufacturing new orders in Asia and the Americas extended their contractions at 44.6 and 45.2 respectively. In Europe new...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Nov 21, 2022
- 3 min
Unsettled
The Fed doesn’t care that much that inflation has probably peaked; the important question is "where will it settle”?
Alex Haseldine
- Nov 4, 2022
- 2 min
Bullard on Wars and Inflation
FOMC member James Bullard makes the connection between the current inflation and the effect of major wars.
Jonathan Wilmot
- Nov 3, 2022
- 1 min
10 Charts on War, Inflation and Asset Prices
Wars are inflationary, period. That is one of the clearest lessons of history, as we document below.
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