Jonathan Wilmot
10 Charts on War, Inflation and Asset Prices
Wars are inflationary, period. That is one of the clearest lessons of history, as we document below.
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Jonathan Wilmot
- Oct 20, 2022
- 3 min
Perception Gaps
At the global equity market peak last year, financial assets were strongly outperforming the real economy, a state we refer to as bearish...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Oct 13, 2022
- 1 min
The Fed as Bean Counter
The Fed now has an explicit dual mandate (low inflation and full employment). What if we assumed that de facto it has always had a dual...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Oct 11, 2022
- 2 min
For Putin September Was the Cruellest Month So Far
In addition to Russia's battlefield reverses, Europe took a significant step towards energy resilience this winter.
Alex Haseldine
- Oct 7, 2022
- 1 min
The US Labour Market is Starting to Cool Down
The US labour market is still running hot, with very large numbers of quits and new hiring compared to normal. But the data suggests that...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Sep 29, 2022
- 3 min
War or Peace I
Russia is about to formally annex the parts of Ukraine that it has occupied, making (in Putin’s narrative) an attack on its forces there an
Jonathan Wilmot
- Sep 28, 2022
- 6 min
When the Fed Panics What Does the Market Do?
Panic is the short answer. Some thoughts on the longer answer below…..
Jonathan Wilmot
- Sep 15, 2022
- 2 min
Can Europe Get Through The Winter Without Russian Gas?
The EU will need to cut consumption by around 15% from 2021 levels. And even then it will be touch and go.
Jonathan Wilmot
- Sep 13, 2022
- 1 min
Dangerous Territory
Today’s US CPI report delivered another shock to markets by giving investors even more reason to fear a Fed policy mistake.
Alex Haseldine
- Sep 1, 2022
- 1 min
Super-Bubble?
We love Jeremy Grantham’s work but we are not so sure that the current environment really qualifies as a super-bubble...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Aug 23, 2022
- 2 min
Car Crash
Diffusion indices like the PMI data can be tricky. And have been particularly so since COVID, because activity trends have been so...
Alex Haseldine
- Aug 23, 2022
- 1 min
Backlogs Down, Inflation Cooling
Today's Flash PMIs confirmed that order backlogs peaked in summer 2021 and have plummeted over the last 8 months. Output prices were...
Alex Haseldine
- Aug 10, 2022
- 2 min
Taking the Lead on Inflation
Today’s CPI report in the US surprised on the downside, a welcome change from the dismal run of higher than expected inflation readings...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Aug 10, 2022
- 5 min
Don't Invade, Just Blockade
Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan was a major strategic blunder in our view. It has strengthened nationalist sentiment within China and...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Aug 9, 2022
- 4 min
Not As Hot As It Feels
July's Non-Farm Payroll report suggests that the US labour market is still running hot, and that the hawks on the FOMC will get their...
Alex Haseldine
- Jul 29, 2022
- 1 min
Not Big Enough (Yet)
So far the energy shock isn’t big enough to send US economy into a downward spiral.
Jonathan Wilmot
- Jul 23, 2022
- 2 min
Do We Really Need Another Volker Moment?
In this tightening cycle the Fed was late to start and has been playing catch up ever since. Now the market fear is that they will overdo...
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