Jonathan Wilmot
Disinflation Set to Slow Down
After 2 very benign CPI reports for June and July the August report was slightly more concerning. The good news is that core inflation...
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Alex Haseldine
- Aug 10
- 1 min
US CPI: Core Services Running at 2%
The good news in the CPI report is that Core Services inflation (sticky inflation) is running at 2% over the last three months. Moreover,...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Jul 14
- 0 min
Postponed or Cancelled?
Uncertainty rules on both the secular and cyclical front...
Alex Haseldine
- Jun 26
- 1 min
Dead Cat
The incipient recovery in global manufacturing that began in Q4:2022 has effectively rolled over and died over the past few months.
Jonathan Wilmot
- May 29
- 0 min
The Missing Link
In Narrative Economics Robert Shiller documents how asset prices are often driven by stories: narratives that may be true, half true or....
Jonathan Wilmot
- May 24
- 1 min
Manufacturing Dips, Services Power On
G4 flash PMI Data for May confirm that the incipient recovery in global production has dipped...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Apr 6
- 5 min
In a State of Limbo
Limbo: in a state of uncertainty, up in the air, in abeyance, betwixt and between. (Collins Dictionary). Stuck between heaven and hell...
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 15
- 2 min
Sticky But Not Stuck
Bringing down the stickier components of inflation was never going to be easy, but they have gradually drifted down from a high level.
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 10
- 2 min
Slowly, Slowly, Catchee Monkey
Competition for workers has been fierce but it now seems to be cooling down. Perhaps the Fed can afford to be more patient.
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 6
- 3 min
At Your Service
In February, the non-manufacturing sector accelerated and job creation stayed strong. However, data suggests labour supply has improved...
Alex Haseldine
- Feb 24
- 1 min
Back to Saving
Jobs and disposable income are up, but now consumers are looking for savings.
Jonathan Wilmot
- Feb 22
- 2 min
Turning UP
Near-term prospects for global growth continue to improve
Alex Haseldine
- Feb 15
- 2 min
Turning Slowly
Following yesterday’s US CPI release we update some of our favourite charts on inflations and inflation expectations
Jonathan Wilmot
- Feb 2
- 1 min
The PMIs Point Towards Spring
Recession deferred? Manufacturing PMIs are pointing towards a rebound in the Spring.
Jonathan Wilmot
- Jan 31
- 0 min
Have We Got The Energy?
It's only a slight simplification to say that energy prices remain the swing variable in the outlook for global growth...
Federico Fontana
- Jan 19
- 3 min
Let's Chat About ChatGPT
ChatGPT is a great example of how man and machine can be even more powerful than either man or machine.
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