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  • Alex Haseldine

US GDP Tracker: Slowing Not Slumping

Updated: Apr 5

Our High-Frequency GDP tracker has come down from 3.1% per annum last October to 2.1% pa in mid-March 2024. That's up slightly from a low of 1.7% in February but a fair summary is probably that growth is slowing but not slumping. GDP Now (the Atlanta Fed nowcast for Q1:2024 is also 2.1% as of March 19th, down for 4.1% in late-January.

Upward earnings revisions have moved broadly in line with the GDP tracker but have bounced recently despite the slowdown in GDP growth. Meanwhile, one year forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 continue to trend steadily higher in level terms though a relatively small number of stocks account for that trend over the past 12 months (most notably Nvidia).

Most forecasters expect a further slowdown in quarterly GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 but so far neither upward earnings revisions nor one year forward earnings have rolled over to the downside.

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