On the surface, November payrolls seem robust. Under the surface however, other indicators show some early signs of a slowing labour market.
Household employment levels are virtually flat over the last 9 months.
US Challenger layoffs jumped in November from 33.8k to 76.8k, a pattern which has occurred at the start of previous recessions. However, almost 70% of these layoffs have taken place in the technology sector, while other sectors show no real sign of slowing.