Jonathan Wilmot
Turning UP
Near-term prospects for global growth continue to improve
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Jonathan Wilmot
- Feb 2
- 1 min
The PMIs Point Towards Spring
Recession deferred? Manufacturing PMIs are pointing towards a rebound in the Spring.
Jonathan Wilmot
- Jan 31
- 0 min
Have We Got The Energy?
It's only a slight simplification to say that energy prices remain the swing variable in the outlook for global growth...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Jan 6
- 1 min
Fading Away
Inflation pressures are subsiding, especially in the goods sector..
Alex Haseldine
- Dec 1, 2022
- 1 min
November PMI Note
In November, manufacturing new orders in Asia and the Americas extended their contractions at 44.6 and 45.2 respectively. In Europe new...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Aug 23, 2022
- 2 min
Car Crash
Diffusion indices like the PMI data can be tricky. And have been particularly so since COVID, because activity trends have been so...
Alex Haseldine
- Aug 23, 2022
- 1 min
Backlogs Down, Inflation Cooling
Today's Flash PMIs confirmed that order backlogs peaked in summer 2021 and have plummeted over the last 8 months. Output prices were...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Jul 23, 2022
- 2 min
Do We Really Need Another Volker Moment?
In this tightening cycle the Fed was late to start and has been playing catch up ever since. Now the market fear is that they will overdo...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Apr 26, 2022
- 0 min
Not So Fast
At the start of this year, we expected global growth ex-China to re-accelerate...Now, the prospect is for global production to fall outright
Jonathan Wilmot
- Nov 3, 2021
- 0 min
On The Bounce
September was a rough month for the global economy: we estimate that Global Industrial Production fell 0.7% on the month...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Oct 2, 2021
- 0 min
The Shortage Economy
Global COVID cases peaked 5 weeks ago and have come down hard. China has now vaccinated...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Aug 25, 2021
- 0 min
Flash In The Pan
Delta took a small bite out of global growth in July and is taking a larger bite out of August...
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