Jonathan Wilmot
Manufacturing Dips, Services Power On
G4 flash PMI Data for May confirm that the incipient recovery in global production has dipped...
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Jonathan Wilmot
- Apr 6
- 5 min
In a State of Limbo
Limbo: in a state of uncertainty, up in the air, in abeyance, betwixt and between. (Collins Dictionary). Stuck between heaven and hell...
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 15
- 2 min
Sticky But Not Stuck
Bringing down the stickier components of inflation was never going to be easy, but they have gradually drifted down from a high level.
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 10
- 2 min
Slowly, Slowly, Catchee Monkey
Competition for workers has been fierce but it now seems to be cooling down. Perhaps the Fed can afford to be more patient.
Alex Haseldine
- Mar 6
- 3 min
At Your Service
In February, the non-manufacturing sector accelerated and job creation stayed strong. However, data suggests labour supply has improved...
Alex Haseldine
- Feb 24
- 1 min
Back to Saving
Jobs and disposable income are up, but now consumers are looking for savings.
Jonathan Wilmot
- Feb 22
- 2 min
Turning UP
Near-term prospects for global growth continue to improve
Alex Haseldine
- Feb 15
- 2 min
Turning Slowly
Following yesterday’s US CPI release we update some of our favourite charts on inflations and inflation expectations
Jonathan Wilmot
- Jan 6
- 1 min
Fading Away
Inflation pressures are subsiding, especially in the goods sector..
Alex Haseldine
- Dec 1, 2022
- 1 min
November PMI Note
In November, manufacturing new orders in Asia and the Americas extended their contractions at 44.6 and 45.2 respectively. In Europe new...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Nov 21, 2022
- 3 min
Unsettled
The Fed doesn’t care that much that inflation has probably peaked; the important question is "where will it settle”?
Alex Haseldine
- Nov 4, 2022
- 2 min
Bullard on Wars and Inflation
FOMC member James Bullard makes the connection between the current inflation and the effect of major wars.
Jonathan Wilmot
- Nov 3, 2022
- 1 min
10 Charts on War, Inflation and Asset Prices
Wars are inflationary, period. That is one of the clearest lessons of history, as we document below.
Jonathan Wilmot
- Oct 20, 2022
- 3 min
Perception Gaps
At the global equity market peak last year, financial assets were strongly outperforming the real economy, a state we refer to as bearish...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Oct 13, 2022
- 1 min
The Fed as Bean Counter
The Fed now has an explicit dual mandate (low inflation and full employment). What if we assumed that de facto it has always had a dual...
Alex Haseldine
- Oct 7, 2022
- 1 min
The US Labour Market is Starting to Cool Down
The US labour market is still running hot, with very large numbers of quits and new hiring compared to normal. But the data suggests that...
Jonathan Wilmot
- Sep 28, 2022
- 6 min
When the Fed Panics What Does the Market Do?
Panic is the short answer. Some thoughts on the longer answer below…..
Jonathan Wilmot
- Sep 13, 2022
- 1 min
Dangerous Territory
Today’s US CPI report delivered another shock to markets by giving investors even more reason to fear a Fed policy mistake.
Alex Haseldine
- Aug 23, 2022
- 1 min
Backlogs Down, Inflation Cooling
Today's Flash PMIs confirmed that order backlogs peaked in summer 2021 and have plummeted over the last 8 months. Output prices were...
Alex Haseldine
- Aug 10, 2022
- 2 min
Taking the Lead on Inflation
Today’s CPI report in the US surprised on the downside, a welcome change from the dismal run of higher than expected inflation readings...
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